1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 20

Aluminij–Olimpija Ljubljana

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 5 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Olimpija LjubljanaA. Marin (assist: F. Ananou)
31'Olimpija LjubljanaNemanja Motika
37'AluminijB. Susso (assist: E. Taylor)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aluminij 1.13 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.63. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

A. Matkovic→

4.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Aluminij, 1.63 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (X2 — draw or Olimpija Ljubljana win).
These values were computed from 636 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aluminij to win25.2%

Draw26.5%

Olimpija Ljubljana to win48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–2

Aluminij lead at half-time16.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time41.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Aluminij ahead or level58.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Olimpija Ljubljana ahead83.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 635 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aluminij: at least 12
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 12

Corners

Aluminij: at least 3
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aluminij score1.13

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.63

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.5%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.