1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 19

Olimpija Ljubljana–Mura

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Olimpija LjubljanaPedro Lucas
87'Olimpija LjubljanaAgustín Doffo · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 1.78 · Mura 0.79. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

A. Borosak→

3.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.79 for Mura.
The highest double chance value is 85.3% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 630 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win61.2%

Draw24.1%

Mura to win14.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time39.3%

Mura lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Mura ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 629 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11
Mura: at least 10

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 6
Mura: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.78

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mura score0.79

Attack: Mura score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%2–012.5%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.