1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 15

Aluminij–NK Domzale

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'AluminijE. Saitoski (penalty)
59'AluminijW. Sule (assist: V. Koderman)
78'AluminijB. Feta (penalty)
90'NK DomzaleR. Lampreht

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aluminij 1.85 · NK Domzale 1.22. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

D. Sabanagic→

4.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Aluminij to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Aluminij, 1.22 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Aluminij win or draw).
These values were computed from 611 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aluminij to win51.8%

Draw24.5%

NK Domzale to win23.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aluminij lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time39.0%

NK Domzale lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Aluminij ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 610 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aluminij: at least 12
NK Domzale: at least 12

Corners

Aluminij: at least 5
NK Domzale: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aluminij score1.85

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score1.22

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.7%2–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.