1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 14

NK Domzale–Mura

3–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 3 November 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.6% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'MuraA. Korošec (assist: L. Bobičanec)
20'NK DomzaleR. Hrvatin
32'MuraL. Bobičanec
53'NK DomzaleA. Kahvić (assist: N. Milić)
73'NK DomzaleN. Milić
78'MuraDario Vizinger (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.23 · Mura 1.24. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

D. Novarlic→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Mura to win”. Second comes “NK Domzale to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for NK Domzale, 1.24 for Mura.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 608 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win35.1%

Draw29.3%

Mura to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–2

NK Domzale lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time42.8%

Mura lead at half-time34.6%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level65.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Mura ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 607 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Mura: at least 10

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 5
Mura: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.23

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mura score1.24

Attack: Mura score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–19.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.