1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 14

Celje–Aluminij

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Z'dežele, Celje

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'CeljeF. Kovačević (assist: D. Šturm)
79'CeljeD. Šturm (assist: Mario Kvesić)
90'AluminijB. Tanyi

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 2.93 · Aluminij 0.77. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

B. Mertik→

4.68

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.0%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.93 for Celje, 0.77 for Aluminij.
The highest double chance value is 94.2% (1X — Celje win or draw).
These values were computed from 605 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win82.0%

Draw12.2%

Aluminij to win5.8%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Celje lead at half-time54.9%

Level at half-time33.3%

Aluminij lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Celje ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or Aluminij ahead45.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 604 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celje: at least 12
Aluminij: at least 11

Corners

Celje: at least 5
Aluminij: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals72.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 473 of 642 predictions were correct (73.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score2.93

Attack: Celje score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aluminij concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.93 goals.

How many goals Aluminij score0.77

Attack: Aluminij score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.7%3–010.7%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.