1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 13

Olimpija Ljubljana–NK Domzale

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 9%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Olimpija LjubljanaD. Mitrovski
54'NK DomzaleA. Kahvić (assist: L. Lukanic)
74'NK DomzaleR. Hrvatin (assist: A. Parras)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana 2.13 · NK Domzale 0.68. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

M. Matosa→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.7%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Olimpija Ljubljana, 0.68 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Olimpija Ljubljana win or draw).
These values were computed from 602 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win71.7%

Draw19.1%

NK Domzale to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time55.6%

Level at half-time35.9%

NK Domzale lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Olimpija Ljubljana ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead44.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 601 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 12
NK Domzale: at least 12

Corners

Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 6
NK Domzale: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score2.13

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score0.68

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.2%1–012.2%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.