1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 12

NK Domzale–Radomlje

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Športni Park, Domžale

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'RadomljeN. Kukovec (assist: L. Kusic)
61'NK DomzaleH. Vučkić (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NK Domzale 1.51 · Radomlje 1.29. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Antic→

7.33

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “NK Domzale to win”. Second comes “Radomlje to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for NK Domzale, 1.29 for Radomlje.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 595 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NK Domzale to win41.5%

Draw27.1%

Radomlje to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

NK Domzale lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time42.5%

Radomlje lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — NK Domzale ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Radomlje ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 594 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NK Domzale: at least 12
Radomlje: at least 11

Corners

NK Domzale: at least 4
Radomlje: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NK Domzale score1.51

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radomlje concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radomlje score1.29

Attack: Radomlje score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.8%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.