1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 11

Maribor–NK Domzale

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ljudski vrt, Maribor

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'MariborJ. Repas
35'MariborO. Rekik (assist: B. Tetteh)
81'MariborP. Mbina (assist: S. Ojo)
89'NK DomzaleA. Nwankwo · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maribor 2.27 · NK Domzale 0.74. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

A. Jeric→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.8%: “Maribor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Maribor, 0.74 for NK Domzale.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Maribor win or draw).
These values were computed from 591 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maribor to win72.8%

Draw18.0%

NK Domzale to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 2–0

Maribor lead at half-time50.4%

Level at half-time37.1%

NK Domzale lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Maribor ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or NK Domzale ahead49.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 590 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maribor: at least 11
NK Domzale: at least 11

Corners

Maribor: at least 5
NK Domzale: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maribor score2.27

Attack: Maribor score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: NK Domzale concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NK Domzale score0.74

Attack: NK Domzale score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maribor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–010.5%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.