1. SNL · Slovenia · Regular Season - 10

Mura–Olimpija Ljubljana

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Olimpija LjubljanaI. Durdov (assist: J. Urbancic)
25'Olimpija LjubljanaDino Kojić (assist: Álex Blanco)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mura 0.90 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.55. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

M. Jug→

4.86

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.5%: “Olimpija Ljubljana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Mura, 1.55 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Olimpija Ljubljana win).
These values were computed from 588 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mura to win20.3%

Draw27.2%

Olimpija Ljubljana to win52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Mura lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time42.9%

Olimpija Ljubljana lead at half-time38.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Mura ahead or level61.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Olimpija Ljubljana ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 587 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mura: at least 11
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 11

Corners

Mura: at least 3
Olimpija Ljubljana: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mura score0.90

Attack: Mura score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olimpija Ljubljana concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olimpija Ljubljana score1.55

Attack: Olimpija Ljubljana score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mura's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–112.7%0–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.