Super League · Switzerland · Championship Group - 36

BSC Young Boys–FC Basel 1893

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

Goals and red cards

49'BSC Young BoysD. Pech (assist: D. Males)
74'BSC Young BoysD. Males (assist: Alvyn Sanches)
90'BSC Young BoysC. Fassnacht

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		FC Basel 1893
25	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
463	Passes	378
395	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.68 · FC Basel 1893 1.61. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots BSC Young Boys 25 · FC Basel 1893 11; on target 8 and 6.
BSC Young Boys kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

4.25

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “BSC Young Boys to win”. Second comes “FC Basel 1893 to win” at 36.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for BSC Young Boys, 1.61 for FC Basel 1893.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 811 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win39.0%

Draw25.0%

FC Basel 1893 to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

BSC Young Boys lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

FC Basel 1893 lead at half-time27.3%

First-half double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys ahead or level72.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or FC Basel 1893 ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 811 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BSC Young Boys: at least 13Actual: 12
FC Basel 1893: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

BSC Young Boys: at least 5Actual: 5
FC Basel 1893: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.68

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.61

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.2%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.