Super League · Switzerland · Championship Group - 34

BSC Young Boys–FC ST. Gallen

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

Goals and red cards

64'FC ST. GallenL. Gortler (penalty)
81'BSC Young BoysEbrima Colley
90'FC ST. GallenChima Okoroji

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		FC ST. Gallen
19	Shots	19
10	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
418	Passes	246
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.68 · FC ST. Gallen 1.55. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots BSC Young Boys 19 · FC ST. Gallen 19; on target 10 and 5.
BSC Young Boys kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

U. Schnyder→

3.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “BSC Young Boys to win”. Second comes “FC ST. Gallen to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for BSC Young Boys, 1.55 for FC ST. Gallen.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 806 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win40.2%

Draw25.2%

FC ST. Gallen to win34.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys win or draw65.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or FC ST. Gallen win59.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

BSC Young Boys lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time39.0%

FC ST. Gallen lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or FC ST. Gallen ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 806 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BSC Young Boys: at least 12Actual: 22
FC ST. Gallen: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

BSC Young Boys: at least 5Actual: 8
FC ST. Gallen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.68

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.55

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–19.4%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 806 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.