Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 32

FC ST. Gallen–FC Zurich

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 6 April 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kybunpark, St. Gallen

Goals and red cards

33'FC ST. GallenL. Gortler (penalty)
36'FC ZurichIvan Cavaleiro (assist: P. P. Keny)
76'FC ST. GallenA. Vogt (assist: Chima Okoroji)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC ST. Gallen		FC Zurich
17	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
12	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
341	Passes	331
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen 2.10 · FC Zurich 1.16. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC ST. Gallen 17 · FC Zurich 8; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

U. Schnyder→

3.69

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “FC ST. Gallen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.16 for FC Zurich.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — FC ST. Gallen win or draw).
These values were computed from 796 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC ST. Gallen to win59.1%

Draw22.1%

FC Zurich to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC ST. Gallen win or draw81.2%

12 — any result other than a draw77.9%

X2 — draw or FC Zurich win40.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC ST. Gallen lead at half-time52.5%

Level at half-time34.5%

FC Zurich lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC ST. Gallen ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time65.5%

X2 — level or FC Zurich ahead47.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 796 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC ST. Gallen: at least 13Actual: 19
FC Zurich: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

FC ST. Gallen: at least 5Actual: 12
FC Zurich: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score2.10

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Zurich's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Zurich score1.16

Attack: FC Zurich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.5%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 796 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.