Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 30

FC Luzern–FC Winterthur

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Thermoplan Arena, Luzern

Goals and red cards

15'FC LuzernMatteo Di Giusto (penalty)
32'FC WinterthurN. Burkart (assist: A. Hunziker)
45'FC WinterthurT. Golliard (assist: N. Burkart)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Luzern		FC Winterthur
19	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
582	Passes	271
490	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Luzern 2.55 · FC Winterthur 1.04. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Luzern 19 · FC Winterthur 10; on target 5 and 5.
FC Luzern kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

U. Schnyder→

3.66

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.7%: “FC Luzern to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.55 for FC Luzern, 1.04 for FC Winterthur.
The highest double chance value is 88.1% (1X — FC Luzern win or draw).
These values were computed from 783 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Luzern to win70.7%

Draw17.4%

FC Winterthur to win11.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Luzern win or draw88.1%

12 — any result other than a draw82.6%

X2 — draw or FC Winterthur win29.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC Luzern lead at half-time54.1%

Level at half-time34.7%

FC Winterthur lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Luzern ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or FC Winterthur ahead45.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 783 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Luzern: at least 11Actual: 15
FC Winterthur: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

FC Luzern: at least 6
FC Winterthur: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Luzern score2.55

Attack: FC Luzern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Winterthur concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Winterthur score1.04

Attack: FC Winterthur score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Luzern's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%2–09.1%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 783 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.