Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 29

BSC Young Boys–FC Thun

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

Goals and red cards

7'BSC Young BoysAlvyn Sanches
50'FC ThunValmir Matoshi (assist: Franz-Ethan Meichtry)
80'FC ThunNils Reichmuth (assist: M. Heule)

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		FC Thun
15	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
356	Passes	317
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.65 · FC Thun 1.75. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots BSC Young Boys 15 · FC Thun 16; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

S. Scharer→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “FC Thun to win”. Second comes “BSC Young Boys to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for BSC Young Boys, 1.75 for FC Thun.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 778 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win35.6%

Draw24.5%

FC Thun to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 113 of 165 predictions were correct (68.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys win or draw60.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or FC Thun win64.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

BSC Young Boys lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time38.7%

FC Thun lead at half-time34.6%

First-half double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys ahead or level65.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or FC Thun ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 778 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BSC Young Boys: at least 11Actual: 16
FC Thun: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

BSC Young Boys: at least 4Actual: 3
FC Thun: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.65

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Thun's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Thun score1.75

Attack: FC Thun score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–29.2%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 778 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 28 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.