Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 29

FC ST. Gallen–FC Basel 1893

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kybunpark, St. Gallen

Goals and red cards

9'FC ST. GallenChima Okoroji
15'FC ST. GallenChima Okoroji
29'FC ST. GallenC. Boukhalfa

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC ST. Gallen		FC Basel 1893
26	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
363	Passes	503
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen 1.76 · FC Basel 1893 1.59. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FC ST. Gallen 26 · FC Basel 1893 11; on target 9 and 5.
FC Basel 1893 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

U. Schnyder→

3.69

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “FC ST. Gallen to win”. Second comes “FC Basel 1893 to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.59 for FC Basel 1893.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 777 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC ST. Gallen to win41.5%

Draw24.6%

FC Basel 1893 to win33.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC ST. Gallen win or draw66.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or FC Basel 1893 win58.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

FC ST. Gallen lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time40.0%

FC Basel 1893 lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC ST. Gallen ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or FC Basel 1893 ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 777 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC ST. Gallen: at least 15Actual: 22
FC Basel 1893: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

FC ST. Gallen: at least 5Actual: 5
FC Basel 1893: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.76

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Basel 1893's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Basel 1893 score1.59

Attack: FC Basel 1893 score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–19.5%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 777 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 135 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.