Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 28

FC Winterthur–Servette FC

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese, Winterthur

Goals and red cards

54'FC WinterthurR. Buess (assist: A. Hunziker)
63'FC WinterthurM. Kryeziu · red card
79'Servette FCFlorian Ayé (assist: J. Kadile)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Winterthur		Servette FC
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
344	Passes	417
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Winterthur 1.28 · Servette FC 1.96. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC Winterthur 13 · Servette FC 11; on target 7 and 2.
Servette FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

3.78

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “Servette FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for FC Winterthur, 1.96 for Servette FC.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (X2 — draw or Servette FC win).
These values were computed from 768 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Winterthur to win23.4%

Draw23.6%

Servette FC to win53.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	25

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Winterthur lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time39.8%

Servette FC lead at half-time35.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Winterthur ahead or level64.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Servette FC ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 768 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Winterthur: at least 11Actual: 14
Servette FC: at least 10Actual: 25

Corners

FC Winterthur: at least 3Actual: 4
Servette FC: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Winterthur score1.28

Attack: FC Winterthur score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Servette FC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Servette FC score1.96

Attack: Servette FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Winterthur concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–210.6%0–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.