Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 27

BSC Young Boys–FC Zurich

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

Goals and red cards

22'FC ZurichL. Kamberi · red card
64'BSC Young BoysS. Lauper (assist: Joël Monteiro)
71'BSC Young BoysC. Bedia
86'BSC Young BoysC. Bedia (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		FC Zurich
36	Shots	6
10	Shots on target	1
18	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
517	Passes	228
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.93 · FC Zurich 1.38. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots BSC Young Boys 36 · FC Zurich 6; on target 10 and 1.
BSC Young Boys kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

U. Schnyder→

3.73

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “BSC Young Boys to win”. Second comes “FC Zurich to win” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for BSC Young Boys, 1.38 for FC Zurich.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win50.1%

Draw23.8%

FC Zurich to win26.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

BSC Young Boys lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time36.8%

FC Zurich lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or FC Zurich ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BSC Young Boys: at least 11Actual: 9
FC Zurich: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

BSC Young Boys: at least 5
FC Zurich: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.93

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Zurich's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Zurich score1.38

Attack: FC Zurich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–110.3%2–27.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.