Serie A · Italy · Regular Season - 32

Fiorentina–Sampdoria

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'FiorentinaG. Castrovilli (assist: C. Biraghi)
62'FiorentinaDodô (assist: L. Jović)
66'FiorentinaA. Duncan (assist: L. Jović)
76'FiorentinaC. Kouame (assist: S. Amrabat)
88'FiorentinaAleksa Terzić (assist: L. Jović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Sampdoria
23	Shots	4
10	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	0
5	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
542	Passes	275
475	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 1.96 · Sampdoria 0.68. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Fiorentina 23 · Sampdoria 4; on target 10 and 1.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Giua→

5.88

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.4%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for Fiorentina, 0.79 for Sampdoria.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — Fiorentina win or draw).
These values were computed from 318 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win72.4%

Draw17.9%

Sampdoria to win9.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fiorentina lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time42.6%

Sampdoria lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fiorentina ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Sampdoria ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 318 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fiorentina: at least 12Actual: 14
Sampdoria: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Fiorentina: at least 6
Sampdoria: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score1.96

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sampdoria score0.68

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%2–110.5%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.