Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 24

FC Luzern–Grasshoppers

4–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Thermoplan Arena, Luzern

Goals and red cards

9'GrasshoppersTim Meyer
15'FC LuzernOscar Kabwit (assist: J. von Moos)
35'GrasshoppersL. Plange (penalty)
37'FC LuzernMatteo Di Giusto (assist: L. Villiger)
53'FC LuzernSven Köhler (own goal)
58'GrasshoppersSimone Stroscio
76'

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Luzern		Grasshoppers
19	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
422	Passes	350
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Luzern 1.92 · Grasshoppers 1.20. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots FC Luzern 19 · Grasshoppers 13; on target 6 and 4.
FC Luzern kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

3.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “FC Luzern to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for FC Luzern, 1.20 for Grasshoppers.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — FC Luzern win or draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Luzern to win54.0%

Draw23.8%

Grasshoppers to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

FC Luzern lead at half-time41.8%

Level at half-time39.3%

Grasshoppers lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Luzern ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Grasshoppers ahead58.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 743 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Luzern: at least 10Actual: 9
Grasshoppers: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

FC Luzern: at least 5Actual: 5
Grasshoppers: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Luzern score1.92

Attack: FC Luzern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Grasshoppers's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Grasshoppers score1.20

Attack: Grasshoppers score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Luzern's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.8%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.