Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 18

Servette FC–Lausanne

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

37'Servette FCMardochee Miguel · red card
64'LausanneFlorian Ayé (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Servette FC		Lausanne
7	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	4
56%	Possession	44%
508	Passes	414
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Servette FC 1.79 · Lausanne 1.29. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Servette FC 7 · Lausanne 10; on target 1 and 5.
Servette FC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Servette FC to win”. Second comes “Lausanne to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Servette FC, 1.29 for Lausanne.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Servette FC to win48.7%

Draw25.0%

Lausanne to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Servette FC win or draw73.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Lausanne win51.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Servette FC lead at half-time28.9%

Level at half-time40.5%

Lausanne lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Servette FC ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Lausanne ahead71.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 718 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Servette FC: at least 10Actual: 13
Lausanne: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Servette FC: at least 6Actual: 10
Lausanne: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Servette FC score1.79

Attack: Servette FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lausanne's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lausanne score1.29

Attack: Lausanne score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Servette FC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.5%1–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 718 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 89 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.