Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 19

Grasshoppers–FC ST. Gallen

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

28'FC ST. GallenA. Balde (assist: Albert Vallci)
42'GrasshoppersL. Zvonarek (assist: L. Plange)
48'FC ST. GallenHugo Vandermersch

Match statistics

Match statistics
Grasshoppers		FC ST. Gallen
12	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
433	Passes	269
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Grasshoppers 1.41 · FC ST. Gallen 1.57. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Grasshoppers 12 · FC ST. Gallen 16; on target 3 and 8.
Grasshoppers kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Scharer→

3.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “FC ST. Gallen to win”. Second comes “Grasshoppers to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Grasshoppers, 1.57 for FC ST. Gallen.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 716 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Grasshoppers to win33.2%

Draw26.3%

FC ST. Gallen to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Grasshoppers win or draw59.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or FC ST. Gallen win66.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Grasshoppers lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time40.0%

FC ST. Gallen lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Grasshoppers ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or FC ST. Gallen ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 716 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Grasshoppers: at least 13Actual: 20
FC ST. Gallen: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Grasshoppers: at least 4Actual: 4
FC ST. Gallen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Grasshoppers score1.41

Attack: Grasshoppers score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.57

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Grasshoppers's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–29.7%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 716 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 120 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.