Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 14

FC Luzern–Servette FC

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Thermoplan Arena, Luzern

Goals and red cards

2'FC LuzernJ. von Moos (assist: Oscar Kabwit)
9'FC LuzernMatteo Di Giusto (assist: A. Grbić)
57'Servette FCTimothé Cognat (assist: David Douline)
72'Servette FCFlorian Ayé (assist: M. Ishuayed Sanchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Luzern		Servette FC
14	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	11
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
327	Passes	421
230	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Luzern 1.80 · Servette FC 1.41. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Luzern 14 · Servette FC 17; on target 4 and 2.
Servette FC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

4.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “FC Luzern to win”. Second comes “Servette FC to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for FC Luzern, 1.41 for Servette FC.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 683 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Luzern to win46.3%

Draw24.8%

Servette FC to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Luzern lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time38.7%

Servette FC lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Luzern ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Servette FC ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 683 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Luzern: at least 11Actual: 7
Servette FC: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

FC Luzern: at least 4Actual: 3
Servette FC: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Luzern score1.80

Attack: FC Luzern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Servette FC's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Servette FC score1.41

Attack: Servette FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Luzern's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.1%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.