Super League · Switzerland · Regular Season - 3

BSC Young Boys–FC Sion

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Wankdorf, Bern

Goals and red cards

80'FC SionJan Kronig · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
BSC Young Boys		FC Sion
13	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
424	Passes	307
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BSC Young Boys 1.96 · FC Sion 1.01. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots BSC Young Boys 13 · FC Sion 10; on target 4 and 3.
BSC Young Boys kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Sandro Schärer, Switzerland→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “BSC Young Boys to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for BSC Young Boys, 1.01 for FC Sion.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — BSC Young Boys win or draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BSC Young Boys to win59.5%

Draw23.0%

FC Sion to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

Double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or FC Sion win40.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

BSC Young Boys lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time39.6%

FC Sion lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — BSC Young Boys ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or FC Sion ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 621 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BSC Young Boys: at least 12Actual: 18
FC Sion: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

BSC Young Boys: at least 6Actual: 8
FC Sion: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BSC Young Boys score1.96

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Sion's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Sion score1.01

Attack: FC Sion score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.