First League · Bulgaria · Championship Group - 36

CSKA 1948–Levski Sofia

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 25 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 0.89 · Levski Sofia 1.35. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

G. Piskov→

5.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for CSKA 1948, 1.35 for Levski Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (X2 — draw or Levski Sofia win).
These values were computed from 1,011 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win23.2%

Draw29.6%

Levski Sofia to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time47.3%

Levski Sofia lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Levski Sofia ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1011 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 11
Levski Sofia: at least 10

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 3
Levski Sofia: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score0.89

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Sofia score1.35

Attack: Levski Sofia score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948 concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–113.8%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.