First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Group - 37

Spartak Varna–Lokomotiv Sofia

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

Goals and red cards

8'Spartak VarnaG. Stojanovski (assist: Jota Lopes)
30'Spartak VarnaG. Stojanovski (assist: Xande)
62'Spartak VarnaG. Stojanovski (assist: B. Ivanov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spartak Varna		Lokomotiv Sofia
21	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	5
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
347	Passes	385
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.03 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.45. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Spartak Varna 21 · Lokomotiv Sofia 15; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

V. Mitrev→

4.96

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Lokomotiv Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Spartak Varna, 1.45 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Sofia win).
These values were computed from 1,011 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win25.5%

Draw28.4%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,617 of 7,015 predictions were correct (51.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spartak Varna win or draw53.9%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Sofia win74.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time16.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time39.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level60.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead83.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1011 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 9Actual: 5
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 3Actual: 6
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,971 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.03

Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.45

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–111.4%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1011 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 90 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.