First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Group - 36

Lokomotiv Sofia–Slavia Sofia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 18 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

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Goals and red cards

12'Lokomotiv SofiaN. Neychev (assist: A. Taoui)
82'Lokomotiv SofiaA. Taoui (assist: S. Delev)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.46 · Slavia Sofia 1.16. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

V. Zhelezov→

4.53

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Lokomotiv Sofia to win”. Second comes “Slavia Sofia to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 1.16 for Slavia Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,011 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Sofia to win43.3%

Draw28.0%

Slavia Sofia to win28.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia win or draw71.3%

12 — any result other than a draw72.0%

X2 — draw or Slavia Sofia win56.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time44.1%

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Slavia Sofia ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1011 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 10
Slavia Sofia: at least 10

Corners

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 6
Slavia Sofia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,970 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.46

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.16

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.9%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.