First League · Bulgaria · Championship Group - 35

CSKA 1948–Ludogorets

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'CSKA 1948Lasha Dvali
90+5'LudogoretsSon · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 0.92 · Ludogorets 1.38. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

V. Minev→

3.75

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for CSKA 1948, 1.38 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 1,009 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win23.6%

Draw29.2%

Ludogorets to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw52.9%

12 — any result other than a draw70.8%

X2 — draw or Ludogorets win76.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time45.2%

Ludogorets lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1009 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Ludogorets: at least 9

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 3
Ludogorets: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score0.92

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.38

Attack: Ludogorets score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–113.1%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.