First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Group - 35

Slavia Sofia–Dobrudzha

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 12:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavia, Sofia

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Goals and red cards

3'DobrudzhaVasco Oliveira (penalty)
87'DobrudzhaTomás Silva (assist: K. Stanev)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Sofia 1.40 · Dobrudzha 0.95. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

D. Dimitrov→

4.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Slavia Sofia, 0.95 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Slavia Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Sofia to win46.8%

Draw29.0%

Dobrudzha to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.0%

X2 — draw or Dobrudzha win53.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time41.4%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1007 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Sofia: at least 11
Dobrudzha: at least 10

Corners

Slavia Sofia: at least 4
Dobrudzha: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.40

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score0.95

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–012.7%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.