First League · Bulgaria · Conference League Group - 34

Botev Plovdiv–Arda Kardzhali

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

Share on X

Goals and red cards

61'Arda KardzhaliC. Huseynov
68'Botev PlovdivC. Meotti (assist: Franklin Mascote)
70'Arda KardzhaliC. Huseynov (assist: D. Velkovski)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.16 · Arda Kardzhali 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

T. Kirov→

3.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Arda Kardzhali to win” at 34.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Botev Plovdiv, 1.14 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win35.3%

Draw30.4%

Arda Kardzhali to win34.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw65.7%

12 — any result other than a draw69.6%

X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win64.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time46.4%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1007 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 10
Arda Kardzhali: at least 11

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 5
Arda Kardzhali: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.16

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.14

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–010.7%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.