First League · Bulgaria · Championship Group - 33

CSKA 1948–CSKA Sofia

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'CSKA SofiaM. Brahimi (assist: J. Eto'o)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.22 · CSKA Sofia 1.18. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

D. Dimitrov→

4.00

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “CSKA Sofia to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for CSKA 1948, 1.18 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,005 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win36.1%

Draw29.8%

CSKA Sofia to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time45.0%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1005 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
CSKA Sofia: at least 10

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 4
CSKA Sofia: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.22

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.18

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.2%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.