First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Group - 33

Spartak Varna–Dobrudzha

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 6 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

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Goals and red cards

33'Spartak VarnaXande (assist: Angel Granchov)
90'DobrudzhaA. Ramadan

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.07 · Dobrudzha 1.12. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

L. Lyubomirov→

4.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Dobrudzha to win”. Second comes “Spartak Varna to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Spartak Varna, 1.12 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,005 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win33.0%

Draw31.3%

Dobrudzha to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spartak Varna win or draw64.3%

12 — any result other than a draw68.7%

X2 — draw or Dobrudzha win67.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time48.7%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.3%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1005 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 11
Dobrudzha: at least 11

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 4
Dobrudzha: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.07

Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score1.12

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.8%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.