First League · Bulgaria · Conference League Group - 32

Arda Kardzhali–Cherno More Varna

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Cherno More Varna
15	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
494	Passes	372
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.10 · Cherno More Varna 0.96. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 15 · Cherno More Varna 8; on target 2 and 2.
Arda Kardzhali kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

R. Gidzhenov→

4.94

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.96 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,004 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win37.9%

Draw32.2%

Cherno More Varna to win29.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw70.1%

12 — any result other than a draw67.8%

X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win62.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (32.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time46.8%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1004 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 11Actual: 12
Cherno More Varna: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4Actual: 8
Cherno More Varna: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.10

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score0.96

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–013.4%0–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.