First League · Bulgaria · Relegation Group - 31

Spartak Varna–Beroe

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

Goals and red cards

2'Spartak VarnaB. Ivanov · red card
13'Spartak VarnaJota Lopes
82'BeroeIsmael Ferrer
86'BeroeF. Alarcon

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spartak Varna		Beroe
7	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	9
5	Shots inside the box	12
7	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
215	Passes	522
133	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 1.15 · Beroe 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Spartak Varna 7 · Beroe 25; on target 3 and 9.
Beroe kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

M. Markov→

3.13

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.1%: “Spartak Varna to win”. Second comes “Beroe to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Spartak Varna, 1.14 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 69.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win35.1%

Draw30.5%

Beroe to win34.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Spartak Varna lead at half-time21.5%

Level at half-time51.3%

Beroe lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time48.7%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead78.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1001 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 11Actual: 5
Beroe: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 5Actual: 3
Beroe: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score1.15

Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score1.14

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–010.8%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.