First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 30

Botev Vratsa–Lokomotiv Sofia

3–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Lokomotiv SofiaCaue Caruzo (assist: S. Delev)
15'Lokomotiv SofiaS. Delev
45'Botev VratsaD. Genov
88'Botev VratsaM. Ntelo
90'Botev VratsaY. Bornosuzov (assist: J. Gallegos)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 1.09 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.05. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

S. Trenchev→

4.59

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.1%: “Botev Vratsa to win”. Second comes “Lokomotiv Sofia to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Botev Vratsa, 1.05 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 68.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 995 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win35.1%

Draw31.7%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–2

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time52.4%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time47.6%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 995 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 10
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score1.09

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.05

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.0%0–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.