First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

CSKA 1948–Botev Vratsa

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 10 April 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Botev VratsaI. Yurukov · red card
70'CSKA 1948M. Diallo (assist: A. Iliev)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.54 · Botev Vratsa 0.76. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

G. Piskov→

5.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for CSKA 1948, 0.76 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 991 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win55.7%

Draw27.2%

Botev Vratsa to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time48.3%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 991 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Botev Vratsa: at least 10

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 5
Botev Vratsa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.54

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.76

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%1–113.5%2–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.