First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Ludogorets–Cherno More Varna

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.66 · Cherno More Varna 0.65. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

G. Kabakov→

5.53

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Ludogorets, 0.65 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 87.1% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 988 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win62.1%

Draw25.0%

Cherno More Varna to win12.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ludogorets win or draw87.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win37.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ludogorets lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time47.3%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ludogorets ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 988 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ludogorets: at least 9
Cherno More Varna: at least 12

Corners

Ludogorets: at least 5
Cherno More Varna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (43.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.66

Attack: Ludogorets score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.66 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score0.65

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.1%2–014.2%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.