First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Lokomotiv Sofia–Beroe

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'BeroeDavid Valverde Juan (assist: J. Pineda)
57'Lokomotiv SofiaS. Delev (assist: Reyan Daskalov)
82'Lokomotiv SofiaA. Taoui (assist: Caue Caruzo)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.54 · Beroe 0.91. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

V. Chinkov→

5.34

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Lokomotiv Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Lokomotiv Sofia, 0.91 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Lokomotiv Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 987 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Sofia to win51.7%

Draw27.4%

Beroe to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time36.5%

Level at half-time47.4%

Beroe lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Sofia ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead63.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 987 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11
Beroe: at least 10

Corners

Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 6
Beroe: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.54

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.91

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.6%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.