First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 29

Botev Plovdiv–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Lokomotiv PlovdivC. Itu (assist: P. Umarbayev)
45'Botev PlovdivT. Nedelev (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.23 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

L. Lyubomirov→

4.15

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Botev Plovdiv, 1.08 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 986 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win38.7%

Draw30.3%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win31.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time50.1%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time49.9%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 986 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 9
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.23

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.08

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.