First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 28

Arda Kardzhali–Montana

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Arda KardzhaliB. Karagaren (assist: Gustavo Cascardo)
37'MontanaJorginho Soares (assist: B. Dimitrov)
90'Arda KardzhaliW. Samake (assist: S. Kovachev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Montana
9	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
483	Passes	405
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.49 · Montana 0.67. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 9 · Montana 9; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

M. Grebencharski→

4.47

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.67 for Montana.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win57.0%

Draw27.6%

Montana to win15.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time61.5%

Level at half-time35.3%

Montana lead at half-time3.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level96.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.7%

X2 — level or Montana ahead38.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 10Actual: 12
Montana: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 5Actual: 5
Montana: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.49

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montana score0.67

Attack: Montana score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.8%1–113.2%2–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.