First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 28

Lokomotiv Plovdiv–Lokomotiv Sofia

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Lokomotiv SofiaE. Dost · red card
70'Lokomotiv PlovdivJ. Zwarts (assist: C. Itu)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.31 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.04. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

N. Popov→

4.60

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 1.04 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 977 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win41.9%

Draw29.7%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win28.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time47.2%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 977 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 11
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11

Corners

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 4
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score1.31

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score1.04

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–011.7%0–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.