First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 27

CSKA Sofia–Dobrudzha

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'CSKA SofiaM. Ebong (assist: Leo Pereira)
69'CSKA SofiaL. Godoy (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA Sofia		Dobrudzha
9	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	2
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
532	Passes	248
450	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 1.78 · Dobrudzha 0.63. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots CSKA Sofia 9 · Dobrudzha 6; on target 4 and 4.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

G. Ginchev→

5.17

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.4%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for CSKA Sofia, 0.63 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 88.6% (1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 975 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win65.4%

Draw23.2%

Dobrudzha to win11.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 793 of 1,863 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw88.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.8%

X2 — draw or Dobrudzha win34.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time48.5%

Level at half-time41.9%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead51.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 975 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA Sofia: at least 11Actual: 12
Dobrudzha: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

CSKA Sofia: at least 6Actual: 6
Dobrudzha: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,623 of 3,747 predictions were correct (43.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.78

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score0.63

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.5%2–014.7%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 975 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.