First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 27

CSKA 1948–Lokomotiv Sofia

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'CSKA 1948M. Diallo (penalty)
22'CSKA 1948D. Grivic (assist: Lasha Dvali)
30'Lokomotiv SofiaA. Aralica (assist: Caue Caruzo)
45'Lokomotiv SofiaE. Dost (assist: D. Yankov)
62'CSKA 1948B. Tsonev (assist: D. Grivic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA 1948		Lokomotiv Sofia
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
345	Passes	408
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.65 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.92. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots CSKA 1948 9 · Lokomotiv Sofia 9; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

M. Markov→

3.14

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for CSKA 1948, 0.92 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 972 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win54.6%

Draw26.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 972 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 9Actual: 16
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 4Actual: 5
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.65

Attack: CSKA 1948 score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.92

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–011.9%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.