First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 27

Spartak Varna–Ludogorets

1–5

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Spartak, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'LudogoretsI. Chochev (assist: Erick Marcus)
42'Spartak VarnaPedro Victor · red card
47'LudogoretsKwadwo Duah (assist: B. Tekpetey)
50'LudogoretsI. Chochev (assist: Petar Stanić)
53'LudogoretsErick Marcus (assist: Petar Stanić)
57'Ludogorets

Match statistics

Match statistics
Spartak Varna		Ludogorets
6	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	7
2	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
309	Passes	622
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Spartak Varna 0.55 · Ludogorets 1.98. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Spartak Varna 6 · Ludogorets 14; on target 2 and 7.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

K. Kolev→

5.36

yellows per match

0.55

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.2%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.55 for Spartak Varna, 1.98 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 92.0% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 969 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Spartak Varna to win8.0%

Draw19.8%

Ludogorets to win72.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Edvin Kurtulus · red card

83'Spartak VarnaM. Georgiev

90'LudogoretsE. Bile (penalty)

6	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 244 of 561 predictions were correct (43.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Spartak Varna win or draw27.8%

12 — any result other than a draw80.2%

X2 — draw or Ludogorets win92.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Spartak Varna lead at half-time10.1%

Level at half-time43.4%

Ludogorets lead at half-time46.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Spartak Varna ahead or level53.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead89.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 969 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Spartak Varna: at least 10Actual: 6
Ludogorets: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Spartak Varna: at least 3Actual: 1
Ludogorets: at least 6Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Spartak Varna score0.55

Attack: Spartak Varna score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.98

Attack: Ludogorets score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Spartak Varna concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.98 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–216.3%0–115.3%0–310.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 969 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 86 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.