First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 26

Arda Kardzhali–Dobrudzha

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 16 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Arda KardzhaliD. Idowu · red card
32'Arda KardzhaliW. Samake
61'Arda KardzhaliB. Karagaren (assist: L. Kotev)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		Dobrudzha
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
336	Passes	406
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.41 · Dobrudzha 0.79. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 12 · Dobrudzha 10; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

M. Pavlov→

5.57

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.79 for Dobrudzha.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 967 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win51.4%

Draw28.9%

Dobrudzha to win19.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time40.8%

Dobrudzha lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Dobrudzha ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 967 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 11Actual: 11
Dobrudzha: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 5Actual: 4
Dobrudzha: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.41

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dobrudzha score0.79

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.1%1–114.2%2–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.