First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 26

Ludogorets–CSKA Sofia

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'LudogoretsKwadwo Duah (assist: Erick Marcus)
42'LudogoretsPetar Stanić
71'LudogoretsRwan Cruz (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ludogorets		CSKA Sofia
8	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
416	Passes	330
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.44 · CSKA Sofia 0.89. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Ludogorets 8 · CSKA Sofia 9; on target 4 and 2.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

L. Lyubomirov→

3.82

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Ludogorets, 0.89 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 964 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win49.6%

Draw28.5%

CSKA Sofia to win21.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ludogorets lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time48.6%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ludogorets ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 964 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ludogorets: at least 9Actual: 9
CSKA Sofia: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Ludogorets: at least 5
CSKA Sofia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.44

Attack: Ludogorets score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.44 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score0.89

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.89 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–013.3%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.