First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 26

Botev Plovdiv–Botev Vratsa

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 13:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Botev PlovdivE. Martinho da Silva (assist: T. Nedelev)
24'Botev VratsaM. Petkov (assist: R. Tsonev)
63'Botev VratsaM. Smolenski (assist: J. Gallegos)
80'Botev VratsaS. Sanyang (assist: V. Naydenov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Plovdiv		Botev Vratsa
15	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
451	Passes	363
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.17 · Botev Vratsa 0.89. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Botev Plovdiv 15 · Botev Vratsa 9; on target 4 and 5.
Botev Plovdiv kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Velikov→

4.27

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Botev Plovdiv, 0.89 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 963 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win41.3%

Draw31.8%

Botev Vratsa to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time55.0%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time45.0%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 963 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 10Actual: 5
Botev Vratsa: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 5Actual: 3
Botev Vratsa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.17

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.89

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–014.2%0–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.