First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 25

Montana–Ludogorets

0–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Monday, 9 March 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'LudogoretsO. Verdon (assist: Dinis Almeida)
43'LudogoretsKwadwo Duah (assist: Erick Marcus)
45'LudogoretsI. Chochev (assist: Kwadwo Duah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montana		Ludogorets
2	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	8
1	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
22%	Possession	78%
210	Passes	827
144	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montana 0.58 · Ludogorets 1.70. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Montana 2 · Ludogorets 18; on target 0 and 8.
Ludogorets kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

G. Stoyanov→

4.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.1%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.58 for Montana, 1.70 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 958 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montana to win11.0%

Draw23.9%

Ludogorets to win65.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Montana lead at half-time7.2%

Level at half-time41.6%

Ludogorets lead at half-time51.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Montana ahead or level48.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Ludogorets ahead92.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 958 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montana: at least 10Actual: 7
Ludogorets: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Montana: at least 3
Ludogorets: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montana score0.58

Attack: Montana score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.70

Attack: Ludogorets score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Montana's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–117.0%0–215.4%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.