First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 25

CSKA Sofia–Lokomotiv Sofia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 15:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'CSKA SofiaJ. Eto'o (assist: M. Brahimi)
81'CSKA SofiaA. Piedrahita (assist: J. Eto'o)

Match statistics

Match statistics
CSKA Sofia		Lokomotiv Sofia
20	Shots	3
5	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
465	Passes	333
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 1.84 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.73. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots CSKA Sofia 20 · Lokomotiv Sofia 3; on target 5 and 1.
CSKA Sofia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. Draganov→

4.13

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.2%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for CSKA Sofia, 0.73 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 957 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win64.2%

Draw23.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win12.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,095 of 4,440 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw87.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Sofia win35.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time46.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 957 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA Sofia: at least 10Actual: 8
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

CSKA Sofia: at least 6Actual: 4
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,319 of 4,971 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.84

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.73

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.6%2–013.5%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 957 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.