First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 25

Dobrudzha–Beroe

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 10:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Druzhba, Dobrich

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'BeroeFrancisco Varela · red card
64'DobrudzhaG. Trifonov

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dobrudzha		Beroe
20	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
414	Passes	296
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dobrudzha 1.27 · Beroe 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Dobrudzha 20 · Beroe 10; on target 8 and 2.
Dobrudzha kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

V. Zhelezov→

4.60

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Dobrudzha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Dobrudzha, 0.98 for Beroe.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — Dobrudzha win or draw).
These values were computed from 955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dobrudzha to win42.3%

Draw30.4%

Beroe to win27.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Dobrudzha lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time47.5%

Beroe lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Dobrudzha ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Beroe ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 955 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dobrudzha: at least 10Actual: 17
Beroe: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Dobrudzha: at least 6Actual: 5
Beroe: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dobrudzha score1.27

Attack: Dobrudzha score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beroe score0.98

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dobrudzha's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.7%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.