First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 25

Botev Vratsa–Arda Kardzhali

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Botev VratsaM. Stoev (assist: K. Malinov)
68'Arda KardzhaliD. Velkovski · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Botev Vratsa		Arda Kardzhali
5	Shots	4
1	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
390	Passes	276
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Vratsa 0.92 · Arda Kardzhali 1.12. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Botev Vratsa 5 · Arda Kardzhali 4; on target 1 and 3.
Botev Vratsa kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Stalev→

4.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for Botev Vratsa, 1.12 for Arda Kardzhali.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (X2 — draw or Arda Kardzhali win).
These values were computed from 954 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Vratsa to win28.5%

Draw32.2%

Arda Kardzhali to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time18.3%

Level at half-time50.4%

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Vratsa ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time49.6%

X2 — level or Arda Kardzhali ahead81.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 954 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Vratsa: at least 10Actual: 18
Arda Kardzhali: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Botev Vratsa: at least 4
Arda Kardzhali: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.92

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.12

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–113.9%0–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.